AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures fell 5 to 6 cents in the front months on Monday afternoon. December posted a new life of contract low at $3.75 1/2. Heavy rains are expected in much of the Corn Belt over the next week. This afternoon’s crop progress report showed Corn emergence currently sitting at 98%, ahead of the average of 97%. Conditions were 1% higher on gd/ex ratings at 78%, better than most expectations. The Brugler500 index was up 2 points at 392. This morning’s Export Inspections report indicated that 1.669 MMT of corn was shipped in the week that ended on June 14. That was 18.31% larger than the week prior and 36.74% more than the same week in 2017. Inspections YTD are now within 8.53% of a year ago, slowly gaining over the past several weeks.

Jul 18 Corn closed at $3.56, down 5 1/4 cents,

Sep 18 Corn closed at $3.65 1/2, down 5 1/4 cents,

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.77 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.87, down 5 1/2 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures closed 1 to 3 cents higher in the nearby contracts on Monday. Front Month soy meal was down $3.40/ton, with soy oil up 7 points. Traders took profits and covered shorts to start the week. That is following a sharp selloff so far in June that has seen 9 of the 12 sessions in the July contract close lower, and a loss of $1.10. Export inspections in the week that ended 6/14 were reported at 818,396 MT by the USDA this morning. That is 21.13% larger than the previous week and more than 180% above the same time last year. Total shipments YTD are 7% behind this time a year ago at 48.307 MMT (1.775 bbu). Soybean planting progress was reported at 97% complete, with emergence at 90%, both well ahead of normal pace. Condition ratings were down 1% to 73% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index 1 point lower at 382.

Jul 18 Soybeans closed at $9.08 1/2, up 3 cents,

Aug 18 Soybeans closed at $9.14, up 2 1/2 cents,

Sep 18 Soybeans closed at $9.20, up 1 3/4 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $9.31 1/2, up 1 cent,

Jul 18 Soybean Meal closed at $335.50, down $3.40,

Jul 18 Soybean Oil closed at $29.57, up $0.07

Wheat

Wheat futures saw losses of 7 to 9 cents in the MPLS contracts on Monday. CBT was down 9 to 12 cents, with KC hit the hardest, 19 to 20 1/4 cents lower. Inspections of all wheat for export in the week that ended on June 14 were tallied at 372,843 MT by the USDA this morning. That is just half of what was reported for the same week last year and a drop of 11.15% from the week prior. Total inspections in the first 2 weeks of the 18/19 MY are down 51.35% from the same time in the 17/18 MY. The winter wheat harvest is moving right along, reported at 27% complete as of Sunday vs. the average at 19%. NASS tallied condition ratings 1% higher at 39% gd/ex, pushing the Brugler500 index up 4 points to 300. Spring wheat was reported at 9% headed, with the normal average at 12%. Conditions improved 8% to 78% gd/ex, adding 13 points from last week’s Brugler500 to 388.

Jul 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.90, down 9 1/2 cents,

Jul 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.99 1/2, down 20 1/4 cents,

Jul 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.63 3/4, down 7 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures ended Monday down 15 cents in the front month, with deferred contracts mixed. Feeder cattle futures were 77.5 cents to a dollar higher. The CME feeder cattle index was at $141.28 on June 15, up 55 cents from the previous day. Wholesale boxed beef values were mixed on Monday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 88 cents to $220.71, with Select boxes $1.47 higher at $204.20. The Ch/Se spread narrowed to $16.51. The USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter at 118,000 head on Monday. That is even with last week and 3,000 head above last year.

Jun 18 Cattle closed at $108.300, down $0.150,

Aug 18 Cattle closed at $105.175, up $0.400,

Oct 18 Cattle closed at $107.575, up $0.550,

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $148.975, up $1.000

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $149.125, up $0.850

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $148.625, up $0.775

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures settled with 65 cent to $2 gains on Monday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $1.35 to $81.44 on June 14. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was reported at $84.41 in the Monday PM report, up 32 cents. The loin and ham primal cuts were the only reported lower. The national base carcass price was down 17 cents on Monday afternoon, averaging $82.80. Monday’s estimated FI hog slaughter was shown at 415,000 head. That was well below last week’s 446,000 head and down 12,000 head from a year ago.

Jul 18 Hogs closed at $83.725, up $2.000,

Aug 18 Hogs closed at $79.425, up $1.175

Oct 18 Hogs closed at $64.925, up $0.650

Cotton

Cotton futures posted another round of sharp losses on Monday, down 208 to 340 points. Areas in the Texas High Plains received rains over the weekend, which were much needed for that region. Trade issues and Specs taking profits added to the selling pressure. This afternoon’s NASS Crop Progress report showed 22% of the US cotton crop was squared as of Sunday, vs. the average at 17%. Conditions were down 4% to 38% gd/ex. The Brugler500 was down another 10 to 312 points. The Cotlook A index was UNCH from day prior at 101.45 cents/lb on June 15. The weekly AWP was updated to 82.99 cents/lb for this week, good through Thursday.

Jul 18 Cotton closed at 87.320, down 340 points,

Oct 18 Cotton closed at 88.660, down 262 points

Dec 18 Cotton closed at 87.770, down 208 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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