Wheat Commentary - Just My Opinion

July Chgo Wheat closed 7 cents higher ($4.95 ), Sept 7 cents higher ($5.06 ) & Dec 6 cents higher ($5.23)

July KC Wheat closed 4 cents higher ($4.93 ), Sept 4 cents higher ($5.10) & Dec 4 cents higher ($5.32 )

Weekly Wheat Export Sales 461.6 K T. old crop vs. 250-500 K T. expected no new crop vs. none expected

Agritel, a French consulting agency, after touring the southern wheat regions of Russia suggested their wheat crop will be 67.4 M T. The USDA earlier this month suggested the Russian wheat crop would be 68.5 M T. This and higher European prices buoyed US wheat futures led by the Chgo contract. Chgo continues to gain noticeably on the KC as the unwinding of long KC/short Chgo continues. Weekly wheat export sales were deemed solid based on expectations.

Few if any changes are being seen in the interior cash wheat markets. With that being said there is still a firm bias being noted especially with the HRW market. Export markets for both varieties are quiet but with a firm tone. With the exception of the July/Sept wheat spreads Chgo spreads continue to show a firm tone. KC spreads are trying to come back from recent weakness. The idea behind the spreads is great demand for high protein wheat and the possibility of better business down the road if the Russian crop continues to sink. I say down the road because as of this writing US origin is still out of the ball park when it comes to being competitive in the world export circles.

Flat price wheat flags out of Tuesdays hole. Im not wild about Chgo leading the way as Chgo is dominated by the specs. If KC had a better leadership role on the rally I might think otherwise. Because Im viewing the last couple of days as flagging action Im not sure there is much more left on the upside without a test of recently established support. Without overseas support I doubt the US market can go it alone on the upside.

Daily Support & Resistance for 06/22

July Chgo Wheat: $4.85 - $5.05

July KC Wheat: $4.85 - $5.05

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